Where Has the Excitement Gone? This Decline of Open-Play Goal Scoring
One of the biggest stories of the EPL this campaign is the decline of goals scored in open-play scenarios and the way clubs have been scoring increasingly from set-pieces instead.
Comparing goal sources to matchday 11 last season, we see 39 fewer scored in open-play and an increase of 26 from set-plays and spot-kicks, resulting in 13 less overall.
Examining overall statistics, efforts on goal teams are taking show a staggering drop of 370 in open-play than at this stage last season.
And despite the significant rise in dead-ball scores, we've actually seen just two more shots produced from these situations excluding penalties, indicating the proficiency teams are at devising strategies to convert from dead-ball situations.
Goal Averages Show an Interesting Narrative
Over 300 goals recorded in the first 110 fixtures so far averages out at 2.74 goals per game, which if it continued for the entire campaign would be the least for since 2020-21, from five seasons ago (2.69 average).
But just 196 scores coming in open play equates to 1.78 per fixture and is on course to be the least for since 2009-10, back in 2009-10 (1.76 average).
2009-10 is also the unique EPL season to experience goals scored at a higher rate from non-penalty set-pieces than this season's rate of 0.77 per fixture (0.79).
What Clubs Account for This Change?
When it comes to scoring from open-play, Wolverhampton Wanderers have experienced the largest drop, scoring a mere four in 11 matches, a reduction of 10 than this point last season.
Excluding Wolves, the EPL's decline in open play goals is largely a trend among London clubs, with half of the city's seven teams scoring at least five goals fewer from open-play than the prior season.
In fairness, this is primarily due to them scoring numerous scores at the early stages of last season rather than them really struggling to convert in open-play the current term.
Conversely Manchester City have seen the biggest increase, with all but one of the 23 they've scored to date originating in open-play.
Dead-Ball Dominance
Looking at clubs that came up with those that were relegated they took the place of. Play-off champions the Black Cats have recorded three more scores in open-play than Southampton did in matchday 11 en route to relegation the previous campaign.
In terms of goals scored from set-pieces (excluding penalties), the Gunners and the Blues have experienced the largest rise, with the two clubs making up for the five fewer goals that they've produced in open-play with the same number from dead-ball chances.
Man United have recorded double the number scores from set-plays as they managed in the 11 games last season ahead of their coach assumed control, while the Black Cats once more are better at netting than the similar-colored team they replaced.
City don't seem to have got the message about scoring more from set-plays, since they've scored three fewer than the previous campaign, as have the Reds, although that might be down to the tactical shift they have tried to implement.
League-Wide Trends
Six sides – Arsenal, Chelsea, Fulham, Newcastle, Spurs and the Hammers – represent this season's primary examples by scoring fewer goals from open-play and additional from set-pieces, while City represent the sole team to go against the grain up to now by doing the contrary.
It will be fascinating to see if clubs carry on to depend greatly on set-pieces as the campaign progresses or if they regain their overall inventiveness and commence converting increased totals in open-play also.