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New Yorkers will find out who will be their next mayor this Tuesday, in a race that will decide who runs and protects the nation's most populous metropolis at a moment when the former president has threatened to deploy military troops to the urban center.

In this context, New York has experienced a mayoral election that has matched two very different Democratic figures against one another. The election has turned into an acrimonious face-off, marked by accusations of racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the political differences between the two leading contenders that could have major implications for how the Democratic party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has attracted global notice. Representing the old guard is the former governor, the former Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the support of wealthy contributors and big business.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the former longshot who beat Cuomo in the party primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has run on a platform of economic justice and pledged to halt rent increases for about two million New Yorkers, has led his rival by significant margins across all surveys taken in the fall, and it is very much the younger man's race to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

However, Cuomo, who resigned as governor in recent years amid allegations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has trashed his opponent's objectives as unrealistic, and in the final stretch laughed as a radio host made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is Muslim. Recently, the independent was widely condemned as bigoted after posting an artificial intelligence video that included a series of racial caricatures and showed Mamdani releasing a group of criminals.

This represents a rather grubby conclusion to an election that could be key to the path that the Democratic party, floundering in its response to the former president's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the coming years.

National Implications

If the progressive wins convincingly, the party establishment who have declined to support his bid will be forced to reckon with a message that has resonated with Americans' anger at inequality, soaring price rises and the establishment. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to embrace at least a portion of the candidate's progressive proposals about affordability, given the newcomer has created an excitement within the Democratic ranks arguably not seen since Bernie Sanders ran for president in 2016.

Conversely, should Cuomo, who had been predicted to sail to victory in the June primary, achieve a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could reinforce the party's existing approach of considered, uninspiring opposition – a tactic that has infuriated grassroots members. A NYC defeat of the progressive's optimistic platform could persuade party leaders that the best plan is to remain in the center – even as polls show the current iteration of the party is widely disliked nationwide.

Voter Enthusiasm

Residents of the city appear to favor the progressive agenda. Polls show that Mamdani supporters are far more enthusiastic about their choice than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent during the race. The candidate's engaging content on social media, his hopeful outlook for New York and his readiness to actually get out and meet people in the city has drawn an army of over fifty thousand supporters, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

However, Cuomo, in his late sixties, isn't giving up. And with the stakes against him, the former governor has resorted to ugly messaging in the final days.

After spending months launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might resonate, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on targeting Mamdani directly. He has labelled his rival, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and popped up on conservative media for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where the candidate claimed New York “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It reached a nadir last week, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Campaign Dynamics

The line of attack echoes much of what Trump, who has sent the national guard to Washington DC and threatened to take similar action to New York, has said about the progressive, and maybe that is expected. A set of wealthy residents, including some who donated to Trump in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to elect Cuomo elected, as other influential figures have urged Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the race.

Candidate Backgrounds

For the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should never have come to this point. When Mamdani, one of one hundred fifty state legislators, started his campaign for mayor in last year, not many had known him, and in truth, barely anyone even paid attention.

The former governor, by comparison, entered smoothly into the race in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who apparently held all the advantages. The classic political insider, he had married a Kennedy and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as the state's leader in 2011, seventeen years after his parent, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the identical role.

Mamdani, who was elected to the state legislature in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and affordable child services – along with the rent control promise – present a more positive vision of the city's direction than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his vow to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, the candidate has faced difficulties in the final phase, after video surfaced suggesting him implying the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the IDF,” Mamdani said in the clip, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America gathering in 2023. Mamdani, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, indicated he was criticizing cooperative programs between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, Mamdani seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to his opponent's escalating attacks.

The progressive responded to Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first ran for state assembly, a family member advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our city. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where followers of Islam could express their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our faith.”

Speaking to the actions of his opponents, who has claimed Mamd