Starmer's Supporters Initiate 'Block Andy Burnham' Drive to Thwart Mayor's Commons Return
Key supporters of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly started a coordinated campaign to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a comeback to parliament. This action comes after the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has triggered an impending by-election.
Significant Hurdles in the Candidate Selection Procedure
A number of members on the party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have apparently predicted it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection procedure. This is primarily due to the significant presence of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are desperate to head off any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The party apparatus is said to have swung into action following the announcement of the MP's intended departure, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial expense and political risk of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.
Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Previously, he prompted consternation within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had urged him to stand for the party leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a return to parliament to possibly contest the party leadership if a contest to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the extent of any planning, suggesting he is passionate about his job as mayor and would only re-enter national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.
Current Climate and Poll Ratings
Amid polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only senior Labour figure with consistently positive public approval ratings.
If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple obstacles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then win the byelection against challenges from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all before any potential leadership challenge.
The 'Stop Andy' Campaign
Senior Labour figures have said that a "Block Burnham" operation is already under way, with the party machinery being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself said that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to cease discussion of potential contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
NEC members have reportedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert around ÂŁ500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.
A number of sources also expressed concerns about Reform UK attempting to fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.
Union Influence and Democratic Concerns
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. It is also possible the committee could impose an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
However, one Burnham ally counselled against presuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.
The trade unions hold a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently remaining quiet, insiders suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
Electoral Challenges
The seat in question has a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform is expected to launch a strong challenge, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.
Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the backbenches.
The resigning MP confirmed he was resigning due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He is also subject to a parliamentary standards investigation related to his involvement in an inappropriate online group.
