A decade after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in academia but scarcely any politicians or campaigners want to engage with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. They writes two pieces that aim for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass national emblems, duties, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified points, he said. "One side will win here and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has possesses valuable insights to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must join the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
