Day-to-Day Murders in Mexico Decline 37% During the Sheinbaum Administration, Per Official Data

The mean figure of everyday killings per month in the country has dropped by 37% since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, according to fresh official statistics. But, public safety analysts have cautioned that murder numbers may not point to improved countrywide security.

Notable Reduction in Per-Day Averages

Officials reported an mean of almost 55 killings a day in the month of November compared with almost 87 when the President began the leadership in September of last year. This data was shared by the chief of the nation's national public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular press briefing on Tuesday.

“The outcome in murders that we have seen in these months is very important,” Claudia Sheinbaum remarked, noting that in November the smallest amount of homicides were registered for any single November in the past 10 years.

Historical Background and Government Plan

Intense organized crime internal conflicts, combined with the government’s highly military efforts to combat the cartels, have made Mexico’s homicide rate soar in recent times. The figure reached a record high of 36,773 killings in 2020, as reported by the country’s official data agency.

That resulted in Mexico a homicide figure more than 4x higher than the United States. However, murders have been on the downward trend, dropping to 33,550 last year. Sheinbaum has credited her national security strategy for an apparently steeper reduction in killings in the current year.

At a news briefing in the summer, the Mexican leader declared: “We have a strategy, there is oversight of the plan, and we have detailed tracking town by town in certain cases. The plan works. And we have to keep working at it daily.”

The main elements of the President's security plan include:

• Strengthening Mexico’s federal guard.
• Enhancing information gathering and investigative capabilities.
• Enhanced cooperation between various departments.

Analyst Warnings and Statistical Limitations

Nevertheless, public safety researchers cautioned that focusing solely on murder data to paint a picture of improved security was problematic. This is notably true considering the uptick in other criminal activities such as abductions.

“It would be very good news if this was a drop, but I think we must not just concentrate on the homicide numbers and say: ‘Alright, good,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexican organised crime. “I would be cautiously hopeful.”

Per the public policy research organization Mexico Evalúa, homicides in total declined by more than 20% in the first 10 months of this year relative to the same period last year. But, missing persons cases have risen by 15% and in certain regions have increased by as much as 200%.

“Numbers on homicides is no longer useful for assessing the context of public insecurity,” said Armando Vargas, a safety analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have police and investigators who lack the capacity or the will to properly recognize and categorize corpses. Second, organized [criminals] … have the means to hide violent acts through disappearances.”

Vargas added that relying on month-to-month means of everyday killings was additionally problematic because it could hide periods when there were particularly spiking levels of murders.

“Using the per-day mean makes surges of violent crime less visible,” he stated.

Arrests and Confiscations as Metrics of Progress

An area where the administration can point to the success of its safety strategy is on detentions and confiscations. Nearly 40,000 individuals were detained between October 2024 and this past November for major offenses, according to official data. More than 20,000 weapons were taken and 311 tons of narcotics intercepted.

“Donald Trump cannot claim President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because the reality is she is accomplishing a lot with these thousands of arrests, thousands of seizures, and all the tactical weakening of criminal groups. It’s highly politically profitable,” commented Vargas.

Persistent Violence and Public Anger

But despite these efforts, Mexico remains plagued by high bloodshed, with several states in the midst of cartel-fueled bloodshed. Last month there was a high-profile murder of a popular local official in the region of Michoacan, among 10 mayors killed in the last 12 months.

Weeks later, thousands of youth demonstrated in the capital and across the nation to voice their anger at corruption and cartel violence.

“The federal government presents [data] in a manner to construct a narrative of safety. From a political standpoint it’s extremely potent, socially it’s extremely problematic,” Vargas concluded.